By Neil Munro
President Joe Biden’s flood of migrants will force down Americans’ wages over the next 10 years, says a report by the Congress’ non-partisan team of economic experts.
The Congressional Budget Office “estimates that [Biden’s] increase in population will put downward pressure on average real wages [emphasis added],” said the report, which was released on February 7. “Average real wages are expected to be slightly lower by 2034 [emphasis added] than they would be otherwise,” the report said.
The official report reinforces the vast evidence that migration shifts family wages and workplace investment toward Wall Street, real estate, coastal states, and government, while also diverting politicians’ focus away from American communities.
The CBO report optimistically projects Biden’s migrant surge will be over by 2028. But it also predicts there will be no long-term recovery in Americans’ wages as investors and government use the migrant labor to absorb a greater share of new wealth produced each year:
From 2028 to 2034, labor income is projected to remain stable as a percentage of [Gross Domestic Product] GDP, averaging 57.1 percent. That projection is below labor income’s average percentage of GDP from 1947 to 2000, 60.4 percent [emphasis added], because some factors that have depressed labor income relative to GDP since 2000 are expected to persist in the coming decade.
The inflow of migrants will be a subsidy for the consumer economy and real estate companies, according to the report:
The increases to CBO’s population projections have raised projected consumer spending over the 2027–2033 period by roughly 2 percent, or 1.4 percent of GDP—and raised projected residential investment (such as spending on housing construction and home improvements) over that period by roughly 10 percent, or 0.4 percent of GDP—compared with the agency’s previous projections.
Many small-government libertarians praise migration, but the CBO noted that the inflow of poor migrants will also help grow government at a much faster rate:SUBSCRIBE
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In CBO’s projections, real government purchases grow at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent from 2025 to 2034. Federal purchases increase by an average of 0.4 percent a year during that period. Purchases by state and local governments increase much faster in that period, by an average of 0.7 percent a year, mainly because of federal assistance such as education grants.
Government debt will rise by $19 trillion, up to $54 trillion, by 2034, the report noted.
The arrival of millions of lower-wage laborers will be accompanied by a slowdown in productivity-boosting, wealth-generating business investment.
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